Forecast for tonight's announcement of Oscar nominees

Here are my predictions on who will most likely be nominated for an Academy Award this year:


best picture:

Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech

The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


If anyone is going to drop off the list, it would be The Town, to be replaced by 127 Hours. Which is an unlikely scenario.


best director:

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
David Fincher for The Social Network
Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan for Inception
David O. Russell for The Fighter


If anybody is to fall off the list, it would be Darren Aronofsky. Think of Moulin Rouge- another divisive movie. Which would allow Joel and Ethan Coen to be nominated for True Grit.


best original screenplay:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech


I can see Inception missing out, with the slot going to Another Year.


best adapted screenplay:

127 Hours
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
True Grit
Winter's Bone


127 Hours might be passed over for Toy Story 3.


Other possibilities in the screenplay categories are Biutiful, Blue Valentine, Get Low, The Ghost Writer, Made in Dagenham and Never Let Me Go.


best actor:

Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Robert Duvall in Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King's Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours


This category looks tight, but Eisenberg or Franco might have to give way to a spoiler, such as Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine) or Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter).


best actress:
Annette Bening in The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit


The first four look like locks, although I fear Kidman will be passed over. In any case, the fifth nod might go to Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) or Halle Berry (Frankie & Alice).

Williams has better chances at being nominated than her co-star Gosling.


best supporting actor:

Christian Bale in The Fighter
Andrew Garfield in The Social Network
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech


Garfield might find himself upset by John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), or Renner might be replaced by co-star Pete Postlethwaite, who died earlier this month. Don't count Michael Douglas (Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps) yet.


best supporting actress:

Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech
Mila Kunis in Black Swan
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom


Kunis might find herself pushed out by co-star Barbara Hershey, or Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole) or Sissy Spacek (Get Low) might sneak in.

Look for Steinfeld in the supporting actress category, and Lesley Manville (Another Year) in either the lead or supporting actress category.

Plus Julianne Moore (The Kids are All Right) might pull off a surprise and show up in the fifth slot for lead actress, although it is more likely that she will land in the supporting field.